The Cleveland Guardians have opened up a six-game lead in the AL Central so far this season, and they’ll look to keep that going against a division opponent – the Detroit Tigers – on Monday.

Detroit enters this matchup on a three-game winning streak, but it is still six games under .500 and has a negative run differential through 90 games. 

The biggest issue for the Tigers has been their offense, as they rank 26th in OPS and 21st in runs scored so far this season. 

Both of these teams are starting pitchers that haven’t been on the mound much in 2024, but the Guardians are slightly favored on the road. 

Here’s a look at the odds, probable pitchers and a best bet for this AL Central clash on Monday.

Guardians vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

Guardians -1.5 (+114)Tigers +1.5 (-135)

Moneyline

Guardians: -148Tigers: +124

Total

8.5 (Over -108/Under -112)Guardians vs. Tigers Probable PitchersCleveland: Gavin Williams (0-1, 11.25 ERA)Detroit: Keider Montero (1-2, 6.60 ERA)Guardians vs. Tigers How to WatchDate: Monday, July 8Time: 6:40 p.m. ESTVenue: Comerica ParkHow to watch (TV): FS1Guardians record: 56-32Tigers record: 42-48Guardians vs. Tigers Key Players to WatchCleveland Guardians

Jose Ramirez: A five-time All-Star, Jose Ramirez is having a great 2024 season, hitting .271 with 23 home runs, 76 runs batted in and 16 stolen bases. Ramirez is just one home run shy of matching his 2023 season total, a huge boost to this Cleveland lineup. 

Detroit Tigers

Riley Greene: The Tigers outfielder is really coming into his own, hitting .261 with a team-leading 17 home runs this season. He also has a team-best .356 on-base percentage. The Tigers need more offensive help to really turn things around in 2024, but Greene is keeping them somewhat afloat right now.   

Guardians vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

This is a really tough game to bet strictly off of the starting pitching.

Gavin Williams made his season debut for the Guardians on July 3, and it did not go well. He gave up seven hits, two walks and five earned runs in a loss to the lowly Chicago White Sox – one of the few teams with a worse offense than Detroit this season.

However, Williams isn’t the only starter in this matchup that has struggled in 2024. Keider Montero enters this matchup with a 6.60 ERA in three starts, although he did turn in his best outing of the season his last time out (6.1 innings of two-run ball) in a win over the Minnesota Twins. 

Despite that, I’m going to take the Guardians to pull off the win on the road. 

Detroit currently is three games under .500 at home in 2024, and the Tigers and Guardians both may need to rely on their bullpens to win this game. That’s where a massive advantage exists for Cleveland, which ranks No. 1 in the league in bullpen ERA (2.59) in 2024.

The Tigers (4.26 bullpen ERA) simply can’t compete in that department, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Montero gives up a few runs since his Fielding Independent Pitching is still up over 6.00 in three starts this season. 

Cleveland has been one of the best teams in baseball, so I’ll gladly take this short price on Monday for it to pick up a win.